2025 Shabelle offensive

2025 Shabelle offensive
Part of Somali Civil War (2009–present)
Approximate map of the current phase of the Somali Civil War (Updated March 2025)  Somalia:   Under control of the Federal Government of Somalia, Jubaland, Puntland, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, and the United States Jihadist insurgent groups:   Under presence/control of al-Qaeda-backed al-Shabaab and allies   Under control of Islamic State-backed Somalia Wilayah  Somaliland:   Under control of the self-declared state of Somaliland (For a more detailed map of the current military situation, see here.)
Date February 20, 2025 (2025-02-20) – present (2 months and 10 days) Location Central and south Somalia (Hiran, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Banaadir, Bakool, Lower Juba, and Bay) Northeast Kenya (Mandera County) Status Ongoing Territorial changes Somali National Army repels most initial attacks[23] Al-Shabaab overrun multiple towns and villages
Belligerents
Somalia  Hirshabelle  Turkey[1]  Kenya[2][3] Supported by:  United Nations[4]  United Arab Emirates[5][6][7]  United States[8][9]  Ethiopia[10][11]  Uganda[12][13]  Djibouti[14][15]  Egypt[16][17][18]  Qatar[19]  Russia[20]  United Kingdom[21]  Italy[22]	al-Qaeda  al-Shabaab
Commanders and leaders
Odowa Yusuf Raage[24][25] Sahal Abdullahi Omar[26][27] Abukar Abdulle Garmaqate †[28] Mohamed Nur Jareere †[29][30] Haji Fareey †[31] Hussein Haji Mohamed (Aw Koombe) †[32] Nur Mohamed Gabow (Nur Farey) † Asad Osman Afrah † Abdullahi Aden Hussein (Cirro) (WIA)[33] Ali Abdullahi Hussein[34] Michael Langley[35] Berhanu Jula[36] Seif Salim Rashid[37][38] Joseph Musoke Ssemwanga[39] Zakaria Cheikh Ibrahim[40] Abdel Mageed Saqr[41] Recep Tayyip Erdoğan	Ahmad Diriye Mahad Karate Ali Mohamed Rage Yusuf Dhegnaas †[42] Abukar Buulle [43] Mansoor Timo-Weyne †[44]
Units involved
Somali Armed Forces Somali National Army[45] Danab Brigade[46] Gorgor Brigade[47][48] 17th Gorgor Brigade[49] 175th Battalion 14th October Brigade[49] 146th Battalion Hirshabelle forces[50] Ma'awisley militias[51][52] Somali Air Force[53][54] Somali Custodial Corps[55] Somali Police Force National Intelligence and Security Agency United Arab Emirates Armed Forces United Arab Emirates Air Force[56] AFRICOM[57][58]  United States Armed Forces  United States Air Force[59] Ethiopian National Defence Force Ethiopian Army[60] Ethiopian Air Force[61][62] Kenya Defence Forces Kenya Army[63] Kenya Air Force[64] 50th Air Cavalry[65] Uganda People's Defence Force Ugandan Land Forces[66] Ugandan Air Force[67] Djibouti Armed Forces Djibouti National Army[68] Egyptian Armed Forces Egyptian Army[69][70][71] Turkish Armed Forces Turkish Land Forces[72]	Military of Al-Shabaab
Strength
Per UN: 11,900 personnel[73] 2,500 soldiers[74] 1,410 soldiers[75] 4,500 soldiers[76] 1,520 soldiers[77] 1,091 soldiers[78] 500 soldiers[79]	3,000 militants[80]
Casualties and losses
550+ killed (Somali government claim) 700 killed (al-Shabaab claim) ~230 injured Several captured 145–600 Missing in Action[81] 7 police personnel killed; 4 injured[82] 3 killed, 3 injured 3 killed; 7 injured 6 injured	At least 571 killed
50 civilians killed 210 injured[83]

The 2025 Shabelle offensive (Somali: 2025 Shabeelle weerar, Arabic: هجوم شابيلي ٢٠٢٥, romanized: Hjwm shābyly 2025), also known as Operation Ramadan (Somali: Hawlgalka Ramadaanka, Arabic: عملية رمضان, romanized: ʻAmalīyat Ramaḍān),^[84] is an ongoing military campaign in central Somalia, primarily in the Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions, with periodic clashes in the Banaadir region. The offensive was launched by al-Shabaab, a Jihadist militant group allegiant to al-Qaeda, against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces, and allied Ma'awisley clan militias. The group seeks to encircle the capital, Mogadishu,^[85] and regain territory lost in the 2022 Somali government / African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.^[86]

The offensive began on February 20, 2025, with coordinated attacks on multiple Somali military positions, which included ground assaults using car bombs. Al-Shabaab temporarily seized several towns before being repelled by government and allied militia forces. Subsequent attacks in late February targeted key locations such as Bal'ad, a district capital near Mogadishu.^[87][88] Balad and other towns were quickly recaptured.^[89] In mid-March 2025, al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate the president of Somalia.^[85] Both the United States and Ethiopia have conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting.^[90][59][91]

The campaign is part of a broader escalation in Somalia's insurgency, with al-Shabaab attempting to exploit security gaps created by the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM.^[87] Thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops are reportedly preparing to deploy in an attempt to bolster SNA/AUSSOM forces.^[92] Analysts suggest the timing of the offensive may be linked to Ramadan and seasonal factors affecting militant operations.^[87]